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Life Sciences

Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk

Published on - Translational Psychiatry

Authors: Mira Tschorn, Robert Lorenz, Paul O'Reilly, Abraham Reichenberg, Tobias Banaschewski, Arun Bokde, Erin Quinlan, Sylvane Desrivières, Herta Flor, Antoine Grigis, Hugh Garavan, Penny Gowland, Bernd Ittermann, Jean-Luc Martinot, Eric Artiges, Frauke Nees, Dimitri Papadopoulos Orfanos, Luise Poustka, Sabina Millenet, Juliane Fröhner, Michael Smolka, Henrik Walter, Robert Whelan, Gunter Schumann, Andreas Heinz, Michael Rapp, Paul O’reilly, Trevor Robbins, Jeffrey Dalley, Naresh Subramaniam, David Theobald, Karl Mann, Christiane Bach, Maren Struve, Marcella Rietschel, Rainer Spanagel, Mira Fauth-Bühler, Yvonne Grimmer, Mark Lathrop, Lisa Albrecht, Nikolay Ivanov, Nicole Strache, Andreas Ströhle, Jan Reuter, Jürgen Gallinat, Isabel Gemmeke, Alexander Genauck, Caroline Parchetka, Katharina Weiß, Johann Kruschwitz, Bianca Raffaelli, Alev Isci, Laura Daedelow, Alexis Barbot, Benjamin Thyreau, Yannick Schwartz, Christophe Lalanne, Vincent Frouin, Dimitri Papadopoulos Orfanos, John Rogers, James Ireland, Dirk Lanzerath, Jianfeng Feng, Zuleima Bricaud, Fanny Gollier Briand, Hervé Lemaître, Ruben Miranda, Jessica Massicotte, Marie-Laure Paillère Martinot, Helene Vulser, Jani Pentillä, Irina Filippi, André Galinowski, Pauline Bezivin, Anna Cattrell, Tianye Jia, Helen Werts, Lauren Topper, Laurence Reed, Chris Andrew, Catherine Mallik, Barbara Ruggeri, Charlotte Nymberg, Gareth Barker, Patricia Conrod, Lindsay Smith, Eva Loth, Stephanie Havatzias, Sheyda Shekarrizi, Emily Kitson, Alice Robinson, Deborah Hall, Chiara Rubino, Hannah Wright, Kerstin Stueber, Eanna Hanratty, Eleanor Kennedy, Fabiana Mesquita de Carvahlo, Argyris Stringaris, Gabriel Robert, Alex Ing, Christine Macare, Bing Xu, Tao Yu, Erin Burke Quinlan, Patrick Constant, Semiha Aydin, Ruediger Brühl, Albrecht Ihlenfeld, Bernadeta Walaszek, Thomas Hübner, Kathrin Müller, Stephan Ripke, Sarah Jurk, Eva Mennigen, Dirk Schmidt, Nora Vetter, Veronika Ziesch, Daniel Carter, Emily Walsh, Susanne O’driscoll, Maria Leonora Fatimah Agan, Mairead Mcmorrow, Sinead Nugent, Colm Connolly, Eoin Dooley, Clodagh Cremen, Jennifer Jones, John O’keefe, Martin O’connor, Jean-Baptiste Poline, Christian Büchel, Uli Bromberg, Tahmine Fadai, Juliana Yacubian, Sophia Schneider, Maria Lobatchewa, Claire Lawrence, Craig Newman, Kay Head, Nadja Heym, Alicia Stedman, Mehri Kaviani, Susannah Taplin, Dai Stephens, Tomáš Paus, Zdenka Pausova, Amir Tahmasebi

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Abstract Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents ( N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk ( n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk ( n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions.